1. Home
  2. Studies
  3. Upturn in a Volatile Environment
IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur IW-Trends No. 2 25. June 2012 Upturn in a Volatile Environment

IW Economic Forecast, Spring 2012

Download PDF
Upturn in a Volatile Environment
IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur IW-Trends No. 2 25. June 2012

Upturn in a Volatile Environment

German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

IW Economic Forecast, Spring 2012

After the stagnation of the last quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012 the German economy is back on course for growth. The global economic outlook, which last year worsened noticeably as a result of the potentially adverse effects of the sovereign debt crisis, has brightened again. This will benefit German foreign trade but too late to make a positive contribution to the economy in the course of the forecast period. Private consumption and domestic investment activity will drive growth. While price developments will significantly weaken the increase in consumer spending, the sustained positive development in the labour market will lead to an annual 1 per cent expansion in private consumption in each of the years 2012 and 2013. Annual average unemployment will fall in 2012 to 2.6 million, with the number of employed hitting a record level of just under 42 million. The recovery in the economy will contribute to a reduction in the government budget deficit to 1 per cent of GDP in 2012 and only ½ per cent next year. However, this is no reason to ease up on efforts at consolidation.

Download | PDF

Download PDF
Upturn in a Volatile Environment
IW-Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur IW-Trends No. 2 25. June 2012

Upturn in a Volatile Environment

German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

More on the topic

Read the article
Determinants of personnel planning in Germany
Michael Grömling / Stefanie Seele IW-Report No. 27 21. May 2024

Determinants of personnel planning in Germany

The German labor market has been growing since 2005. The dip in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic between 2020 and 2022 is an exception, as the German labor market has reached a record level of 45.9 million people in employment by 2023.

IW

Read the article
Galina Kolev-Schaefer / Thomas Obst / Thomas Puls IW-Report No. 1 2. January 2024

Effects of the Middle East conflict on the German economy

Beyond the humanitarian crisis associated with the geopolitical conflict in Israel, which affects millions of human lives, the Middle East conflict also leaves lasting marks on economic activity not only in the affected region, but also in Germany and the ...

IW

More about this topic

Content element with id 8880 Content element with id 9713