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Growth and Business Cycle

A prospering economy raises the standard of living of the population, creates jobs and fills the state coffers, from which tasks such as education, environmental protection and social security are financed.

About the topic

Over the past 60 years, the social market economy has enabled the citizens of the Federal Republic to increase their nominal income fivefold on average. Even though prosperity has grown considerably over the long term, economic setbacks have had to be endured time and again, because economic growth does not proceed uniformly, but in waves. The yardsticks for economic development include consumption, public and private investment and gross domestic product. A positive economic trend with high growth rates and increasing employment is followed by a downturn with low growth and fewer people in work.

The Institute of the German Economy monitors the current economic situation in Germany and economic developments in other countries using various instruments and regularly publishes economic forecasts. In this way, the IW helps to improve the basis for decision-making in politics and business.

German Economic Institute (IW) German Economic Institute (IW)

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Hergestellt in China. Kartons mit Text aus China und chinesischer Flagge auf dem Rollenband.
Jürgen Matthes / Edgar Schmitz IW-Report No. 30 11. June 2024

Competitive pressure from China for German companies

A firm survey conducted in March/April 2024 as part of the IW-Zukunftspanel among around 900 German companies from the manufacturing and industrial services sectors shows that around 350 of the companies surveyed have Chinese competitors in their markets.

IW

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Strategic autonomy and economic security achieve efficiently
Jürgen Matthes IW-Policy Paper No. 3 4. June 2024

Strategic autonomy and economic security achieve efficiently

In this study an analytical scheme is developed to operationalise the objective of strategic autonomy in a cost-effective way.

IW

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Determinants of personnel planning in Germany
Michael Grömling / Stefanie Seele IW-Report No. 27 21. May 2024

Determinants of personnel planning in Germany

The German labor market has been growing since 2005. The dip in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic between 2020 and 2022 is an exception, as the German labor market has reached a record level of 45.9 million people in employment by 2023.

IW

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Jürgen Matthes in Intereconomics External Publication 9. April 2024

China’s Trade Surplus – Implications for the World and for Europe

China’s merchandise trade surplus has reached an all-time high and is likely to rise further. A key driver appears to be a policy push to further bolster Chinese domestic manufacturing production, implying the danger of significant overcapacities.

IW

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Michael Grömling

Prof. Dr. Michael Grömling

Head of Macroeconomic and the Business Cycle Research Unit

Tel: +49 221 4981-776
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Leiter des Clusters Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik, Finanz- und Immobilienmärkte

Jürgen Matthes

Head of International Economic Policy, Financial and Real Estate Markets Research Unit

Tel: +49 221 4981-754 Jürgen Matthes
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Klaus-Heiner Röhl

Dr. Klaus-Heiner Röhl

Senior Economist for SME Policy and Regional Policy

Tel: +49 30 27877-103 Klaus-Heiner Röhl
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Competitive pressure from China for German companies
IW-Report No. 30 11. June 2024

Competitive pressure from China for German companies

Jürgen Matthes / Edgar Schmitz

A firm survey conducted in March/April 2024 as part of the IW-Zukunftspanel among around 900 German companies from the manufacturing and industrial services sectors shows that around 350 of the companies surveyed have Chinese competitors in their markets.

IW

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Europe votes: Who cares and why?
IW-Report No. 29 7. June 2024

Europe votes: Who cares and why?

Matthias Diermeier / Judith Niehues / Samina Sultan

This study, based on the IW-People Survey 2024, shows that around 62% of Germans consider the election of the European Parliament to be important. This is the result of around 5,200 respondents. The proportion is therefore roughly as high as the voter turnout in 2019.

IW

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Strategic autonomy and economic security achieve efficiently
IW-Policy Paper No. 3 4. June 2024

Strategic autonomy and economic security achieve efficiently

Jürgen Matthes

In this study an analytical scheme is developed to operationalise the objective of strategic autonomy in a cost-effective way.

IW

Read study
Determinants of personnel planning in Germany
IW-Report No. 27 21. May 2024

Determinants of personnel planning in Germany

Michael Grömling / Stefanie Seele

The German labor market has been growing since 2005. The dip in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic between 2020 and 2022 is an exception, as the German labor market has reached a record level of 45.9 million people in employment by 2023.

IW

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Investment needs in infrastructure and for the transformation
IW-Policy Paper No. 2 14. May 2024

Challenges for the debt brake

Sebastian Dullien* / Simon Gerards Iglesias / Michael Hüther / Katja Rietzler*

In 2019, Bardt et al. (2019) initially presented a comprehensive estimate of the unmet public investment needs in Germany not covered in household planning at the time, totaling around €460 billion over ten years.

IW

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