USA: How important is the economic partnership for us?

This is all the more true as interconnectivity and the role of foreign affiliates in the exchange of goods, know-how and services are becoming increasingly important building blocks of future globalisation. Even China's dominant position in global trade in goods has weakened somewhat in recent years, driven by decoupling tendencies and the efforts of individual companies and entire industries to diversify their international supply chains and reduce one-sided dependencies. Transatlantic relations have benefitted from this development. In the first half of 2024, the USA was Germany's most important trading partner in goods trade (sum of im- and exports) – for the first time since 2015. While China remains the most important supplier of imported goods despite falling import figures, the USA is by far the most important customer of the German export industry. German exports to the USA are more than two-thirds higher than those to China. The outstanding importance of the USA as an export destination varies from sector to sector: the US share in German goods exports is double-digit for the automotive industry, machinery and also the pharmaceutical industry, which sells almost a quarter of its own exports to the USA. Furthermore, almost a tenth of German export products such as data processing equipment, electronic and optical devices and electrical equipment are shipped to the USA. A look within Germany confirms the tremendous importance of the USA for most of the federal states. In six of them the US share of goods exports is over 10 per cent, only in Saxony-Anhalt is it under 5 per cent.

In other important aspects of the economic partnership, the USA also has a clear lead over other countries. Germany exports three and a half times more services to the USA than to China. Germany's service imports from the USA are even five times higher than those from China. In addition, investment relations between Germany and the USA are significantly closer – and also less one-sided – than between Germany and China. In 2022, the USA accounted for about 27.5 per cent of all German foreign direct investment stocks, compared to 7.9 per cent for China. The industry distribution is relatively broad for German foreign direct investments in the USA, while investment in China is mainly concentrated in the automotive industry and the manufacture of electrical equipment. On the other hand, 10.7 per cent of all foreign direct investments in Germany came from the USA, whereas only 0.7 per cent came from China.

These and other figures confirm the excellent conditions for close transatlantic cooperation even after the US presidential elections in November. A common transatlantic approach to shaping the global economic order is essential, including tackling climate policy challenges, joint initiatives to deal with global overcapacities, technology cooperation and the future of the WTO. The willingness of the USA to cooperate is likely to depend crucially on the outcome of the upcoming elections. In any case, however the EU must act with confidence, have a range of well-chosen responses to deal with looming new conflicts, and also define scope for negotiated solutions in order to secure the future of transatlantic economic relations.